Predictions vs. reality in the 2020 venture landscape

After a decade of record-setting growth, expectations were high for the venture industry in 2020. Instead, this has become a year the likes of which the world has never seen.

As VC faces a fundamentally altered reality amid the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, PitchBook analysts revisit the predictions they made at the end of last year. Among those results:

Prediction: Corporate VC activity will reach record highs in 2020. Update: Corporate venture activity has stayed strong, with CVCs involved in a record 26% of US venture rounds.

Prediction: The median US VC fund size will top $110 million. Update: Although short of our lofty forecast, US VC fundraising has remained robust, with the median fund size coming in just over $100 million.

Prediction: 2020 will see a record in US mega-deal activity. Update: As investors favor established companies, rounds over $100 million are proceeding as usual, with H1’s activity in line with 2019’s trajectory.

Prediction: At least three direct listings of companies valued above $1 billion will close this year. Update: With a shaky IPO market and zero direct listings through H1, this isn’t looking likely—but a few highly valued startups considering a public debut may mean at least one direct listing in the latter half of the year.

Source: Pithbook