With Uber and WeWork struggling, are VCs really better than hedge funds at picking winners?
Investors are questioning how good the world’s most prominent venture capital fund is at picking winners. Doubts about the Vision Fund, the flagship investment vehicle for Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank Group Corp., intensified after the collapse of the planned $20 billion WeWork Cos. initial public offering, but they’d been floating around for a while.
SoftBank’s bad year began in May with Uber Technologies Inc.’s disappointing IPO and continued when Slack Technologies Inc.’s June direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange failed to impress. By September the fund was up $11.4 billion on $76.3 billion in investments deployed over two years, according to its Nov. 8 investor briefing. But a big chunk of that came from just two deals: the August 2018 sale of Flipkart Online Services Pvt Ltd. to Walmart Inc. and some well-timed trades in chipmaker Nvidia Corp., which it exited in January.
As for the rest of the fund’s investments, only consumer stocks, which account for 20% of its portfolio, have reported decent gains. Fifty percent of the Vision Fund’s holdings are in transportation logistics and real estate, making it a poor hedge against market volatility. After taking writedowns on Uber and WeWork, it’s already in the red for both sectors.
Here’s a provocative question: What if hedge funds—passive but nimble investors—are better at identifying unicorns than venture capital is? Unlike Son, who has a habit of writing multimillion-dollar checks after only 10 minutes of getting-to-know-you time, hedge fund managers are all about due diligence. Tiger Global Management’s assets, for example, have swelled 80% since May 2015, including big gains in the past 12 months from Juul Labs Inc.’s $12.8 billion deal with Altria Group Inc. and the market debut of Peloton Interactive Inc., which Tiger has backed since 2014.
Son has survived tricky times before. During the dot-com bust, SoftBank’s shares tumbled 99%. But the company stayed around because one of its investments—in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.—paid off spectacularly. Perhaps Son will hit the jackpot again. But a few standout deals don’t make him a great startup picker. In fact, retail investors would do better not to follow his lead. Based on his past success rate, most of the unicorns the Vision Fund brings to market will be flops.
Source: Bloomberg
Can’t stop reading? Read more
Air France-KLM’s Flying Blue Paves the Way for €1.5bn Funding Talks With Apollo Global Management
Air-France-KLM disclosed that it is in talks with Apollo Global Management, a private equity firm, regarding a €1.5bn ($1.64bn) financing package supported by its frequent flyer program, Flying Blue. Under the terms of the potential agreement, Apollo Global Management...
Bain Capital, CVC Capital Partners and DCP Capital Move Ahead in the Bidding for Essity’s Majority Stake In Vinda International Holdings Valued around $2.4bn
Suzano SA, the world’s largest producer of hardwood pulp, and several private equity firms are among the bidders entering the next round for Hong Kong-listed tissue maker Vinda International Holdings Ltd, people with knowledge of the matter say Buyout firms Bain...
Cinven Said to Pick Banks for Sale of €2bn Pet Food Maker
Cinven has picked Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to work on a potential sale of Partner in Pet Food, people with knowledge of the matter said. The private equity firm is in the early stages of exploring a sale of the Hungary-based pet food...