Thoma Bravo eyes software takeovers as AI fears hit valuations

Thoma Bravo is positioning itself to capitalise on a sharp correction in listed software stocks, arguing that investor anxiety over artificial intelligence has created a rare buying opportunity for private equity.

Speaking to the Financial Times in Davos, co-founder Orlando Bravo said the recent sell-off reflects an overreaction by markets worried that AI tools could replace traditional software vendors. “Software is not at all about the code or about the technology. Software is about your domain knowledge,” Bravo said.

The US-based buyout firm, which manages more than $180bn, recently raised a $24.3bn fund dedicated to software deals and remains the most prolific private equity acquirer in the sector. Thoma Bravo last year agreed to take HR software provider Dayforce private in a $12.3bn transaction.

Public software stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks, with an index tracking the sector down about 7% over a three-week period. Shares in Salesforce and Adobe have dropped by about 12%, while Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle have also declined.

Bravo said specialised software companies that dominate specific processes such as payroll or cybersecurity are likely to remain resilient to AI disruption. However, he acknowledged that companies lacking deep expertise in defined niches are “absolutely vulnerable”.

The comments highlight how large buyout firms are preparing to deploy capital selectively into technology assets as valuations reset, even as peers such as Apollo and Blackstone remain cautious about AI-related risks.

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